Martin Catarata described the current U.S.-China agreement as a "ceasefire," not a resolution. China's rapid rollback of certain export bans, such as those on gallium, germanium, and superhard materials, signals a willingness to de-escalate. However, these measures are suspended for only one year, and many controls from earlier in 2025 remain fully in place. The speakers emphasized that both sides are preparing for long-term decoupling, even as they avoid crossing red lines for now.
Dr. Wübbeke highlighted the operational challenges companies face when applying for export licenses under China's regime. The process requires firms to disclose detailed supply chain information, which could be used by Chinese authorities to identify vulnerabilities or exert pressure in future geopolitical scenarios. While general licenses are being discussed, their implementation remains uncertain and may come with strict conditions.
Despite the postponement of six October regulations, key April controls, especially on heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, are still active. These materials are critical for magnets, semiconductors, and battery technologies. The speakers warned that intermediate products such as magnets and cathode materials may be more vulnerable than raw materials due to China's dominance in refining and manufacturing.
Looking ahead, potential future targets include magnesium, silicon carbide, lithium hydroxides, and even pharmaceutical production technologies. China's ability to selectively apply controls, sometimes informally and company-specific, adds another layer of unpredictability.
For professionals in supply chain, strategy, and government affairs, the message is clear: volatility is the new normal. Building resilience will require long-term investment in alternative supply chains, strategic stockpiling, and close monitoring of regulatory developments.
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