China Policy
Chokepoint politics: China's export controls in the era of great power rivalry
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On Thursday, the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China concluded its Fourth Plenary Session and released an official readout. Unlike previous Fourth Plenums, this session closely resembled the traditional role of the Fifth Plenum, focusing on discussions for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan. In pre-Five-Year Plan plenums, policymakers outline 12 "key tasks" for the coming period, with their order generally interpreted as a ranking of policy priorities.
The Fourth Plenum's readout of the 15FYP includes a reordering of the 12 key tasks that guide China's medium-term policy agenda. While most tasks retained their relative positions, one shift stands out: "Opening up" was promoted from 9th to 5th, overtaking areas such as "Rural modernization" and "Environmental protection." This move suggests a recalibration of priorities in response to external pressures and domestic needs, reflecting Beijing's intent to maintain global relevance, attract foreign investment, and stabilize trade relationships amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The elevation of "Opening up" is more than symbolic. It likely points to renewed efforts to expand market access for foreign firms, accelerate cross-border innovation partnerships, and enhance trade facilitation and outbound investment. This shift may also respond to slowing domestic growth and the need to re-engage global capital and supply chains, especially as China's international trade faces challenges amid a trade war with the United States.
