Scenario planning is often treated as a theoretical exercise, a creative brainstorming tool to think “outside the box.” Luisa Kinzius disagrees.
“Many people think scenario planning is just about thinking outside the box. In reality, it is a highly practical tool that helps companies align decision-making across all departments,” she explained.
Her point: a scenario only adds value if it informs procurement strategies, pricing models, or investment decisions. Otherwise, it remains a PowerPoint deck. For Björn Conrad, this operational embedding is what makes scenarios indispensable in times of turbulence.
“It is not about predicting the future, but about making sure the whole organization is ready to move together when conditions change.”
The conversation then shifted to one of the most visible intersections of politics and business: tariffs. While media coverage often treats them as abstract policy levers, companies experience their impact directly.
“Tariffs really mean something for prices, margins, and customers,” Luisa Kinzius stressed. They force difficult choices: absorb the cost to stay competitive, pass it on to customers, or reconfigure supply chains altogether.
Here again, scenario planning proves its worth. Companies that have mapped potential tariff shifts in advance can adapt faster, whether by revising contracts, adjusting sourcing, or repositioning products.
Preparation, however, goes beyond tools and models. It requires building the right internal capabilities. Björn Conrad offered a memorable metaphor: “Companies need both a geopolitical brain and a geopolitical muscle.”
The “brain” might be a strategy team or government affairs unit capable of anticipating shocks. But foresight alone is useless without the “muscle,” the ability of departments such as procurement, sales, or R&D to translate insights into concrete action. Only when both are aligned can organizations truly respond with speed and coherence.
What emerged from the discussion is clear: geopolitics is no longer a distant backdrop to business, but a central variable in corporate decision-making. Companies that keep the Swiss army knife of scenario planning in the drawer, that underestimate the hard impact of tariffs, or that fail to connect brain and muscle risk being blindsided by the next shock.
Those that integrate foresight with execution, by contrast, gain a competitive edge in resilience.
🎧 Listen to the full episode of Geopolitics & Business with Luisa Kinzius on Youtube or in your preferred podcast app.
