Japan’s aging population brings profound economic and productivity challenges. By 2025, 17.5% of the population will be aged 75 and older. Meanwhile, the nursing sector struggles to fill positions, with only one applicant for every 4.25 available jobs as of December 2024. The Ministry of Health anticipates a shortfall of around 380,000 care workers by 2025.
Social security expenditures related to aging—including pensions, medical care, and long-term care—account for roughly one-third of public expenditure in FY2024. The depreciation of the yen and low wages have accelerated the outflow of foreign workers. In this context, robotics and automation are increasingly seen as a necessary, possibly “budget-friendly,” solution to the caregiver shortage.
Japan has been actively developing and deploying robots for elderly care for over two decades. The government has invested in robotics as a policy lever, subsidizing R&D and expanding the list of reimbursable technologies. The “Moonshot Research and Development Program” alone allocates a total budget of 440 million USD by 2050 to tackle societal challenges including aging.
The private sector has developed a diverse portfolio of care technologies: humanoid service robots like AIREC, emotional-support companion robots, safety monitoring systems integrated into bed pads, and transfer robots to assist with lifting patients. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projects the care robotics market will reach 3.8 billion USD by 2035.
The adoption of robotics in Japanese care settings is growing, but unevenly. As of 2022, 63% of nursing homes used monitoring robots, while only 26.4% used mobility robots. Monitoring systems, equipped with sensors and external communication functions, are the most widely adopted due to their lower average cost (~1,370 USD).
Advanced mobility robots, averaging 11,386 USD each, remain less common. AI-driven humanoid robots like AIREC will be even more expensive: initial costs are projected at 67,000 USD, with availability expected around 2030. That price is equivalent to 37 months of a care worker’s salary with five years of experience. Studies suggest that care robots can increase caregivers’ workloads due to maintenance, monitoring, and troubleshooting, potentially offsetting productivity gains.
Reliability and safety remain key concerns. A 2021 study of homecare professionals in Japan revealed mixed to negative views on care robots, with “malfunctioning” being the most frequently reported issue.
Japan’s robotics initiatives are closely watched worldwide as other economies confront similar demographic challenges. China is investing heavily in its own care robotics sector, with lower-cost manufacturing and increasingly competitive AI capabilities positioning Chinese firms as serious challengers.
Japan’s experience shows the promise—and limits—of robotics in care. Fast-moving technologies like AI and deep learning are incubating smarter robots capable of precise and adaptive tasks, but most are not yet practical solutions.
For business leaders and investors, the strongest opportunities lie in hybrid care ecosystems where robotics, AI, and human caregivers are integrated. Success will favor companies that take a human-centric approach to product design, prioritizing affordability and practicality for both care recipients and caregivers.
Originally published in a shorter form on F.A.Z., this version includes additional insights, links, and analysis.
